You may be interested in this latest piece of analysis from the Fabian Society:
Liberal Democrat seats will be at risk at the next General Election, research by the Fabian Society claims. Their report says that the decision to enter into coalition with the Conservatives provides an opportunity for a 'major electoral revival by Labour at the next election'.
The report says that with 43% of Liberal Democrat voters describing themselves as 'centre-left' or 'left', Nick Clegg's decision to join forces with the Conservatives 'risks alienating many Lib Dems and has suddenly put scores of seats into play for the Labour Party to contest'. Tim Horton, Research Director at the Fabian Society, said, " Many Lib Dem voters are progressive and many voted for the Lib Dems as a way to keep the Tories out. They will be outraged by the pact between Cameron and Clegg. At a national level, the Lib Dems have positioned themselves as opponents of the Tories for the last two decades. Their decision to enter into coalition with them fundamentally alters the electoral dynamics of many seats around the UK. There could be a sea change."
He said their analysis shows:
* 19 Lib Dem seats - a third of their total - would fall to Labour if just one-in-four Lib Dem voters switches to Labour in those constituencies
* 30 Conservative seats would fall to Labour if just one-in-four Lib Dem voters switches to Labour in those constituencies
* 55 Conservative seats would fall to Labour if half of Lib Dem voters switch to Labour in those constituencies. Together with seats taken off the Lib Dems, this could be enough for Labour to regain its majority at the next election.
Mr Horton said, " Of course, a Labour recovery will require hard work to recapture those voters who turned to the Tories last Thursday night. But a Lib-Tory pact offers the prospect of significant electoral recovery for Labour even before it gets back a single Tory voter, by allowing it to eat into the Lib Dem vote in many constituencies."
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